Those who’ve had enough of hearing about or seeing Tiger Woods recently should perhaps pay attention when the commercial breaks on American TV start to roll.

This is the one place you can currently be assured of not seeing him as there have been no prime-time TV ads featuring Woods since a 30-second Gillette spot on November 29, two days after the car crash which ultimately exposed his ‘transgressions’. The Woods saga has prompted many to speculate on his declining brand value and whether he’ll ever be the same draw to sponsors who helped him become the first sports (dollar) billionaire.

Woods-fronted marketing campaigns from the likes of Gillette, Nike, Tag Heuer, Accenture and AT&T have more often than not been modelled on his immaculate performance both on and off the golf course. Can any of these brands use his indiscretions to their advantage? Nike has never been shy to back a ‘bad boy’ (think Cantona, McEnroe) but even it may be hard pressed to turn this one around, especially when Woods is being mocked by comedians, newspapers and even mascots at sports grounds. Will he issue a grovelling public apology as Michael Phelps did in China following the ‘bong-gate’ scandal?

While there is undoubtedly always an element of risk involved, brands must always choose sporting ambassadors deftly and ensure they are the right fit, while scandals, such as adultery or brushes with the law, a loss of form, or long-term injury can all hamper public appeal. This is particularly pertinent when it comes to 2012. Can a brand be sure their investment will pay dividends (a la Puma and Bolt) or could a well structured campaign fall flat because of an endorser’s injury or, worse still, a failed drugs test?

When Chinese hurdler Liu Xiang had to withdraw from the Beijing Olympics due to injury, it wasn’t just the Chinese public who were distraught. Xiang was the nation’s poster boy and was backed by a staggering 17 brands by the time the Games began. While some stood by him as he battled backed from injury (notably Nike and Amway), others failed to renew deals. Marketing wise, Xiang was unquestionably over exposed and his numerous deals led to profile clutter that many brands couldn’t cut-through. Indeed, consumer research in the run-up to the 2008 Olympics suggested that the Chinese could not decipher who he promoted as he was fronting so many campaigns. Could the same thing happen to our own Sir Chris Hoy? Cycling’s golden boy from Beijing is currently racking up the endorsement deals, including adidas, Asda, Highland Spring, Bran Flakes and BT.

Of course the big stars will always attract the attention from the big brands, but sponsors and guerrilla marketers would be wise to start doing their homework now as to who the potential stars of 2012 may be. And once ambassadors have been decided, the next phase is to ensure star-fronted campaigns stand out from the abundance of sport-themed marcoms that will dominate the advertising landscape in 2012.